ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF CROATIA\u27S ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION - PASSED TEN AND THE FORTHCOMING TEN YEARS

Glavni cilj ekonomske politike u proteklih deset godina bio je održati stabilnost cijena i tečaja. Budući da je u istome razdoblju došlo do visokog rasta troškova, ponajprije troškova javnoga sektora i plaća, domaća je valuta postajala sve više precijenjenom, a posljedice su bile: rast platnobilančnih defi cita, rast vanjskog duga i pad konkurentnosti na svjetskome tržištu. Takve su tendencije u suprotnosti sa kriterijima konvergencije koje traži EU od zemalja koje se žele pridružiti. U članku se razmatraju moguće posljedice uspostavljenih tendencija i analiziraju se alternativne ekonomske politike, prije svega politike tečaja, koje bi mogle utjecati na promjenu osnovnih obilježja razvojnog modela u kojem se našla Hrvatska.After successful implementation of the Stabilisation programme in October 1993., Croatia has enjoyed high degree of stability of prices and exchange rate all until now. This stability was bolstered by growing infl ow of foreign exchange (remittances, tourism, privatisation, borrowing abroad) and liberalisation of foreign trade. However, due to the simultaneous fast growth of various costs (tax burden, growth of wages above productivity gains, exploding arrears, costs of ineffi cient administrative and judiciary system, corruption etc.), domestic currency has been becoming ever more appreciated. Results have been growing defi cits in the balance of payments, loss of competitiveness on the world market, particularly EU market, loss of jobs, and skyrocketing of foreign indebtedness. All these features stay in contradiction with proclaimed export oriented growth and the Copenhagen preaccession requirements of increasing competitiveness on the EU market. In this paper various consequences of such developments are examined and possible scenarios of exit strategy are proposed