OPTION APPROACH TO CAPITAL INVESTMENT EVALUATION

Oportunitetni (opcioni) pristup vrednovanju kapitalnih ulaganja, bez sumnje je jedan potpuno nov teorijsko metodološki okvir investicijske analize. Za razliku od tradicionalnih, discount cash fl ow (DCF) metoda analize, opcioni pristup daje mogućnost vrednovanja i upravljačke fl eksibilnosti, odnosno mogućnosti prilagođivanja (korigiranja prvobitnih odluka) u skladu sa tržišnim promjenama. Rizik i neizvjesnost neminovni su pratilac kapitalnih ulaganja, pa je zato značaj opcionog pristupa ocjeni i to što omogućuje bolji «tretman» rizika u investicijskoj analizi, a time i racionalniju alokaciju resursa. Taj bi pristup morao biti posebno zanimljiv za zemlje u tranziciji zbog ograničenosti izvora financiranja i zbog naglašenosti rizika i neizvjesnosti.In finance, the discounted cash fl ow (DCF) model operates as the basic framework for most analysis. In investment analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value of a project is the measure of the value that it will add to the firm taking it. Thus, investing in positive (negative) net present value project will increase (decrease) value. In recent years, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options that are embedded in each of these actions. For instance, the net present value of a project does not capture the values of the options to delay, expand or abandon a project. In light of these options that seem to be everywhere, there are some theorists and many practitioners who belive that we should consider these options when analyzing corporate decisions. The asimmetry deriving from having the right, but not the obligation to exercise the option, lies at the heart of the option’s value