Migration: The Present State, Problems and Perspectives of Research Paradigms

U radu se raspravlja o validnosti dviju vladajućih paradigmi u objašnjavanju međunarodnih migracija 21. stoljeća: jedna zagovara eksplozivnost, a druga smirivanje migracijskih tokova. Obje zagovaraju njihovu nepredvidljivost, iako prva (Svjetska banka i UN) inzistira na dugoročnim predviđanjima međunarodnih migracija. Obje su paradigme neprimjerene za opis i objašnjavanje migracija; njima se ne mogu bez ostatka opisati i objasniti volumen, smjer, struktura i globalizacija prinudnih i neprinudnih migracija. U središte analize dolazi individualni neovisni migrant kao donositelj odluka. Autorica smatra da je nužan teorijski i konceptualno nov aparat promišljanja migracija, te pritom zagovara načelo »nove intuicije«, jednostavnosti i ekonomičnosti modela te matematičke potpore sociološkim modelima.Two prevailing paradigms in contemporary international migration research – migration as unpredictable explosion and migration as mainly predictable long cycles movement – are put into question. Both paradigms are not valid in explaining latest development in international migration field. They are too robust for reality which is satiated with novel developments in the field of volume, directions, labour markets and structure of migration flows, both voluntary and involuntary. Individual independent migrant as decision maker is coming to the fore. Therefore the reassessment of theoretical and conceptual apparatus of migration is imminent. As to the methods, mathematically supported sociological models of contemporary migration could be needed. On the basis of “new intuition”, the principles of simplicity, parsimony, and universality could lead to a theoretical innovation