MODEL OF MARITIME RISK ASSESSMENT IN A RESTRICTED AREA OF NAVIGATION

Kao primjer procjene pomorskog rizika sagledano je stanje prometa u Riječkom zaljevu te se simulacijom na modelu prometa analiziralo postojeće stanje prometa i neko buduće povećano stanje prometa utemeljeno na istraženim pokazateljima. Usporedbom postojećeg stanja prometa s pretpostavljenim budućim povećanim stanjem prometa te vrednovanjem parametara koji sudjeluju u prometu, odnosno vrednovanjem mogućih posljedica, došlo se do rezultata koji se pravilnim tumačenjem mogu iskoristiti za prepoznavanje i analizu rizika, a time i prići izradi konkretnog plana za smanjenje rizika, njegovo praćenje i nadzor.As an example of risk assessment in marine navigation I have taken the present traffic in the Bay of Rijeka and by means of traffic model simulation I have analyzed the present traffic as well as an assumed future increase of traffic based on investigated indices. By comparing the present traffic with the assumed future traffic increase and by evaluating the parameters that take place in the traffic, i.e. by an assessment of the possible consequences, I have come out with the results which, if interpreted correctly, may be used to identify and analyze the risk and thereby enable working out of a plan to reduce the risk, monitor it and control it