Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change for developing countries: Efforts so far and challenges ahead

Several recent studies have reported the costs of adapting to climate change for developing countries and have proven to be influential in international negotiations given the role of adaptation in a post-2012 climate agreement. However, their estimates range from US$4 to US$109 billion a year. This wide range is indicative of the poor state of knowledge. Indeed, compared to the mitigation literature, adaptation cost research is still in its infancy. Important knowledge gaps remain both in terms of scope (whether all impacts are covered) and depth (whether for a given impact all adaptation options are considered). Moreover, the additional costs of adaptation have sometimes been calculated as climate mark-ups against low levels of assumed investments. In many developing countries, low levels of investment have led to a current ‘adaptation deficit’, and this deficit will need to be overcome to prevent the case that the funding for adaptation will largely be insufficient to face the challenge of climate change. Based on a literature review, this article presents the results, underlying hypothesis and main shortcomings of the most recent studies on adaptation costs for developing countries.