Natural history of periodontitis: disease progression and tooth loss over 40 years

OBJECTIVES: To assess long-term attachment and periodontitis-related tooth loss (PTL) in untreated periodontal disease over 40 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data originated from the natural history of periodontitis study in Sri Lankan tea labourers first examined in 1970. In 2010, 75 subjects (15.6%) of the original cohort were re-examined. RESULTS: PTL over 40 years varied between 0 and 28 teeth (mean 13.1). Four subjects presented with no PTL, while 12 were edentulous. Logistic regression revealed attachment loss as a statistically significant covariate for PTL (p < .004). Markov chain analysis showed that smoking and calculus were associated with disease initiation and that calculus, plaque, and gingivitis were associated with loss of attachment and progression to advanced disease. Mean attachment loss