Cost-Benefit analysis of RetBus: A new Bus Rapid Transit system in Barcelona

The RetBus project is a plan of the City Council of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) and the transit operator TMB aimed at improving the public transport service in the city. The project involves building a new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system called RetBus as well as eliminating or modifying some existing bus lines. The main design objective of the RetBus project is to provide a higher quality bus service to transit users at a lower cost for the operator. TMB and the City Council of Barcelona need to make a decision on whether or not to implement the RetBus project. They would like to make that decision based on the social value and the financial profitability of the project. The thesis contains a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the RetBus project. Two types of CBA have been carried out: financial cost-benefit analysis (FCBA) and social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA). Based on the results of the FCBA and the SCBA, the thesis also presents some recommendations on what type of changes could be made to the project in order to make it more socially beneficial and/or financially profitable. Two project alternatives have been evaluated. Alternative 1 (TMB plan) corresponds to the RetBus project as it would be implemented according to the plans of TMB: the BRT system is implemented and some changes are made in the bus network in terms of routes and service frequencies. Alternative 2 (Cost-reduction plan) contains all the elements of Alternative 1 plus additional changes to the bus network (21 extra bus lines are eliminated). The project effects included in the CBA are: BRT investment costs, change in fleet replacement costs, change in operating costs, change in operating revenues, transit user benefits, safety effects and environmental effects. Travel demand forecasts are necessary to estimate some of the project effects mentioned above. Those forecasts have been produced by means of a model based on the traditional four-stage transport model. First, a growth factor model has been used to forecast future total trip demand by updating a base year matrix. Second, a multinomial logit mode choice model has been used to perform modal split. Finally, two different models have been used to assign transit and private vehicle travellers to the transit and road networks. The assignment of transit trips is based on a multinomial logit model, while private vehicle trips have been assigned by means of a deterministic user equilibrium (DUE) model. The main conclusions are the following: a) both project alternatives are socially beneficial, although Alternative 2 (Cost-reduction plan) is more beneficial than Alternative 1 (TMB plan); b) Alternative 2 is profitable from a financial perspective, while Alternative 1 is not profitable, the main reason being that operating costs are considerably lower in Alternative 2, while levels of transit ridership and operating revenues are similar in both alternatives, c) the social value of both project alternatives could be improved by increasing the operational speed of the BRT system and/or by speeding up the implementation of the project; d) the financial profitability of both project alternatives could be improved by increasing the operational speed of the RetBus system and/or by raising transit fares. The thesis gives the following recommendations to TMB and the City Council: 1) implement the BRT system; 2) redesign the bus network in order to save operating costs and make it more complementary to the other public transport networks in Barcelona; 3) implement infrastructure measures, traffic management measures or other types of measures aimed at increasing the operational speed of the BRT system; 4) consider the possibility of speeding up the completion of the RetBus project, but study carefully its implications for all parties involved; 5) consider the possibility of increasing transit fares as a means to enhance the financial performance of the RetBus project, but study carefully its implications for all parties involved, since raising fares would reduce the social value of the project.Transport, Infrastructure and LogisticsTransport & PlanningCivil Engineering and Geoscience