Risk-based planning and optimization of flood management measures in developing countries: Case Pakistan

About 95-97% of all deaths and a significant part of the economic losses caused by floods occur in developing countries. Despite the resources spent on different measures, flood management arrangements in developing countries are still unable to deliver satisfactory results. The objective of this thesis is ‘to maximize land-use benefits and minimize flood damage with available resources in a floodplain’. A risk-based flood management framework is proposed, which provides the logical grounds for the selection and (optimal) design of the structural and non-structural measures. In the framework of this research, risk is the result of the combination of ‘hazard’ and ‘vulnerability’. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) is an important part of the basis of the risk analysis. Flood damage curves and EAD distribution maps provide detailed risk information. The concept of the Optimal Risk Point (ORP) is introduced to achieve the objective of this research. ORP is the state of flood management in a floodplain where ‘flood deductions’ are at the minimum. Dikes, dredging, flood zoning, and flood insurance are evaluated through a risk-based assessment in the Pakistani setting. The ORP concept helps in developing risk-based safety standards for flood management. In addition, it is concluded that flood management must be an integral part of the land-use development. Flood risk management should follow the local context and must address socio-economic issues accordingly. The individual choice to accept risk may be covered by introducing complementary insurance or flood taxes.WatermanagementCivil Engineering and Geoscience