The propensity and the postponement of firm relocations. Testing approaches for housing choice models

Forecasting demand for industrial land and commercial property depends on a valid estimation how many firms move to various locations for various reasons. Estimations based on stated choices and revealed choices often differ in size and composition. Spatial and economic planning benefit if we reduce this gap by means of a better understanding why some firms move, others postpone and others chose for in situ improvements. In regional science there is little knowledge about these processes behind firm movements, apart from location factors as such. In contrast, residential geography and applied demography have a long tradition in behavioural approach to model housing choice. Therefore, in this paper we test to what extent concepts of this approach can be used to improve our knowledge on firm movements. In particular we focus on the propensity and the postponement to move by analyzing a longitudinal dataset. Also we analyse preferences, choices between preferences and substitution between preferences.OTB Research Institut