When considering a Monte Carlo estimation procedure, the path produced by successive partial estimates is often used as a guide for informal convergence diagnostics. However the confidence region associated with that path cannot be derived simplistically from the confidence interval for the estimate itself. An asymptotically correct approach can be based on the Brownian motion approximation of the path, but no exact formula for the corresponding area-minimizing confidence region is yet known. We construct proxy regions based on local time arguments and consider numerical approximations. These are then available for a more incisive assessment of the Monte Carlo procedure and thence of the estimate itself
Accurate Monte Carlo confidence intervals (CIs), which are formed with an estimated mean and an esti...
A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the...
International audienceThis article investigates the theoretical convergence properties of the estima...
Minimal area regions are constructed for Brownian paths and perturbed Brownian paths. While the theo...
This paper deals with the estimate of errors introduced by finite sampling in Monte Carlo evaluation...
AbstractThis paper deals with the estimate of errors introduced by finite sampling in Monte Carlo ev...
We construct proxy regions based on local time arguments and consider numerical approximations. Thes...
It is well known that Monte Carlo method can be used to estimate the area of a region which cannot b...
We consider a statistical test whose p value can only be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations....
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used and preferred when the sampling distribution...
We present an iterative sampling method which delivers upper and lower bounding processes for the Br...
AbstractWe assume a drift condition towards a small set and bound the mean square error of estimator...
Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about th...
Let b(t), 0t[mu]. The problem of setting a fixed width confidence interval for [theta]=1[+45 degree ...
This work consists of two separate parts. In the first part we extend the work on exact simulation o...
Accurate Monte Carlo confidence intervals (CIs), which are formed with an estimated mean and an esti...
A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the...
International audienceThis article investigates the theoretical convergence properties of the estima...
Minimal area regions are constructed for Brownian paths and perturbed Brownian paths. While the theo...
This paper deals with the estimate of errors introduced by finite sampling in Monte Carlo evaluation...
AbstractThis paper deals with the estimate of errors introduced by finite sampling in Monte Carlo ev...
We construct proxy regions based on local time arguments and consider numerical approximations. Thes...
It is well known that Monte Carlo method can be used to estimate the area of a region which cannot b...
We consider a statistical test whose p value can only be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations....
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used and preferred when the sampling distribution...
We present an iterative sampling method which delivers upper and lower bounding processes for the Br...
AbstractWe assume a drift condition towards a small set and bound the mean square error of estimator...
Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about th...
Let b(t), 0t[mu]. The problem of setting a fixed width confidence interval for [theta]=1[+45 degree ...
This work consists of two separate parts. In the first part we extend the work on exact simulation o...
Accurate Monte Carlo confidence intervals (CIs), which are formed with an estimated mean and an esti...
A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the...
International audienceThis article investigates the theoretical convergence properties of the estima...