Modelling foot-and-mouth disease : a comparison between the UK and Denmark

Whilst the UK 2001 FMD (foot-and-mouth disease) outbreak provides an extremely rich source of spatio-temporal epidemic data, it is not clear how the models and parameters from the UK can be translated to other scenarios. Here we consider how the model framework used to capture the UK epidemic can be applied to a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark. Whilst pigs played a relatively minor role in the UK epidemic (being the infected animal on just 18 farms), they dominate the Danish livestock landscape. In addition, it is not clear whether transmission parameters from the UK will transfer to Denmark where farming practices may be significantly different. We therefore explore a large volume of high-dimensional parameter space, but seek to relate final epidemic size, risk of spread to Danish islands and potential success of control measures, to early indicators of epidemic dynamics. The results of this extensive modelling exercise therefore allow us to provide timely advice on control options based on the observed behaviours of the first few generations. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved