Evidence of Pressure Dependent Permeability in Long-Term Shale Gas Production and Pressure Transient Responses

The current state of shale gas reservoir dynamics demands understanding long-term production, and existing models that address important parameters like fracture half-length, permeability, and stimulated shale volume assume constant permeability. Petroleum geologists suggest that observed steep declining rates may involve pressure-dependent permeability (PDP). This study accounts for PDP in three potential shale media: the shale matrix, the existing natural fractures, and the created hydraulic fractures. Sensitivity studies comparing expected long-term rate and pressure production behavior with and without PDP show that these two are distinct when presented as a sequence of coupled build-up rate-normalized pressure (BU-RNP) and its logarithmic derivative, making PDP a recognizable trend. Pressure and rate field data demonstrate evidence of PDP only in Horn River and Haynesville but not in Fayetteville shale. While the presence of PDP did not seem to impact the long term recovery forecast, it is possible to determine whether the observed behavior relates to change in hydraulic fracture conductivity or to change in fracture network permeability. As well, it provides insight on whether apparent fracture networks relate to an existing natural fracture network in the shale or to a fracture network induced during hydraulic fracturing