A Bayesian approach to modelling the observed Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy epidemic

The threat of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) to humans was realized in March 1996, when the Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (SEAC) reported to the government that the most likely explanation of the new variant Creutsfeldt-Jakob Disease (nvCJD) in humans was exposure to the BSE agent. To assess the potential risk of nvCJD, it is necessary to understand the development of the BSE epidemic within the cattle population. This paper reports on work undertaken to model the observed BSE epidemic in the UK using established Bayesian methodology. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd