Prospects for the beef market

While EU beef production fell by 1.8% in 2001 (to 7.26 million tonnes) from the already low levels of 2000, beef consumption was down 12% compared to 1999 (to 6.7 million tonnes). This exerted strong downward pressure on EU beef prices, which dropped below intervention-price levels and even in some countries below the safety-net level. Consequently intervention-stock levels grew rapidly to around 259,000 tonnes by mid-December 2001. Prices only slowly recovered but were still below the intervention level by year end. Production is expected to increase in 2002-2003 as purchase for destruction schemes are discontinued, to reach 7.7 million tonnes by 2004. It will then fall back slightly before rising to 7.75 million tonnes by 2009. While consumption is recovering from the BSE-related consumer scares, there remains a downward trend in per capita beef consumption in the EU. Beef imports are set to grow slightly over the period as 'double zero' agreements with pre-accession countries come into effect. The re-opening of major export markets following the FMD crisis is leading to a recovery in EU beef exports (to 500,000 tonnes in 2001). Exports are projected to grow to 740,000 tonnes in 2003-2004, after which they may fall back slightly. Comment: Total EU beef exports are heavily dependent on the Russian market. Any changes in the Russian import regime or any economic problems in Russia can leave tens of thousands of tonnes of beef each month looking for temporary export markets. ACP beef producers will have to stay alert to these temporary fluctuations in the destination of EU beef exports and try to establish the capacity to effectively protect their markets when sudden import surges from the EU might undermine the functioning of national and regional markets important to ACP beef producers.While EU beef production fell by 1.8% in 2001 (to 7.26 million tonnes) from the..