Spatial pattern of the seasonal drought/burned area relationship across Brazilian biomes : sensitivity to drought metrics and global remote-sensing fire products

4 Fires are complex processes having important impacts on biosphere/atmosphere interactions. The spatial and temporal pattern of fire activity is determined by complex feedbacks between climate and plant functioning through and biomass desiccation, usually estimated by fire danger indices (FDI) in official fire risk prevention services. Contrasted vegetation types from fire-prone Brazilian biomes may respond differently to soil water deficit during the fire season. Then, we propose to evaluate the burned area (BA)/FDI relationship across Brazil using most common FDIs and the main BA products from global remote sensing. We computed 12 standard FDIs- at 0.5 degrees resolution from 2002 to 2011 and used the monthly BA from four BA datasets-from the MODIS sensor (MCD45A1), the MERIS sensor (MERIS FIRE_CCI), the Global Fire Emission Database version 4 (GFED4) and version 4s including small fires (GFED4s). We performed a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the coefficients of determination (R-2) of the FDI/BA relationship to investigate the biome specificities of Brazilian biomes and the sensitivity to BA datasets. Good relationships (R-2 > 0.8) were observed for all BA datasets, except SPEI (R-2 50%, p < 0.001) was observed in Amazonia and Cerrado, with lower accuracy (<32%, p < 0.001) in the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga. These results suggest that the FDI/BA relationship are biome-specific to explain the seasonal course of burned in Brazilian biomes, independently of the global BA product used. Selected FDIs should be used for fire danger forecast in each Brazilian biome