The Impact of Migration on Natives’ Unemployment Rates : A study on the municipal level in Sweden

The following is a study of the impact of migration on unemployment rates for natives in Sweden, on municipal level. A cross sectional data set has been analyzed using multiple linear regressions. The regression analysis has searched for the impact on the unemployment rates among natives of the size of the share of migrants in the municipalities as well as of the change in the size of the share of migrants during a time span of 13 years. The results show that migration has small or non-existent impact on the unemployment rates of natives. The results vary depending on the period being investigated and also depending on the characteristics of the municipality that is investigated. When dividing the municipalities into three categories (city, urban and rural municipalities) significant impact of migration on native’s unemployment rates is to be found in city and urban municipalities, but not in rural. The results also indicate that the most significant impact is to be found in the present period of time, while in the long term the impact diminishes to become less significant or not significant at all. 10% migrants in a city municipality in 2015 increased natives’ unemployment level that same year by 0.4 percentage units. More rapid increases of the share of migrants in the labor force have more impact as well. A municipality were the share of migrants grew with 1 percentage unit between 2003 and 2015, had 0.1 percentage unit higher unemployment rate for natives in 2015. This study’s results follow the pattern from earlier studies in the field, that since the 1990’s have shown similar effects when measuring different countries on different continents – sometimes the effect has been significant, sometimes not, and when significant the impact has been rather small, often clustering around zero