Sector demand analysis under meteorological uncertainty

- EUCASS 2017, 3-6 Juily, Milan, Italy. - Datos del Proyecto de Investigación: Title: Meteorological Uncertainty Management for Trajectory Based Operations. Acronym: TBO-Met Funding EC | H2020 CallH2020-SESAR-2015-1 Topic: Sesar-04-2015 - Environment and Meteorology in ATM Contract (GA) number 699294 a.. Start Date: 2016/06/01; End Date: 2018/05/31In this paper, a methodology to assess the uncertainty of sector demand when subject to weather uncertainty is presented. The methodology requires the definition of a scenario (in terms of Air Traffic Control sector, flights, and weather forecasts to be considered), the processing of meteorological data (provided by Ensemble Prediction Systems, which are composed of different possible atmosphere realizations), and a trajectory predictor (which, for each flight and for each atmosphere realization, computes a different aircraft trajectory). The computed trajectories, along with the information of the sector, are then used to analyse the sector demand, which is described in terms of entry count (number of flights entering the sector during a selected time period). The analysis is based on the statistical characterization of the entry times of the flights to the sector and of the entry count. The probability of the entry count exceeding the declared capacity of the sector is obtained. A realistic application example is provided to show the potentiality of the methodologyUnión Europea - Horizon2020 - H2020-SESAR-2015-1 - Sesar-04-2015 - Environment and Meteorology in ATM - Contract (GA) number 699294Unión Europea - Horizon2020 - TBO-Me