Analysis of oil product prices: selected practical issues

The introduction to the issues of the economics of the crude oil processing enterprises (refine- ry) and the analysis of the relationship between the crude oil price (the input of the refinery) and the prices of selected oil products (the output of the refinery) in the year of 2006 is the basic target of this paper. The stock quotation prices of the selected oil products (ULSD - diesel fuel, PREM UNL - gasoli- ne „BA 95 Natural“ and HSFO 3.5 % S - heavy fuel oil with up to 3.5 % sulphur) on the basis of FOB Barges Rotterdam (traded on the commodity stock exchange in Rotterdam) and the prices of the North Sea crude oil Brent are used in this analysis. The prices are quoted in US dollar. The prices are analyzed by the means of regression and correlation analysis. The term „refinery margin“ and its application in practical use with reference to the production configuration of the crude oil processor are explained in this article. The regression functions can be used for predic- tion of the oil products prices trend. These functions could be essentially changed in future with reference to the relevant changes on the fuel products market (for example a strong shift to fuels with biological components) or due to the decrease of the importance of crude oil as a natural resource. Furthermore, the popular oil peak theory by geologist Hubbert is presented here. It is possible to say that it would be fine to think about other economic issues, concerning the crude oil industry economics - the negative externalities related to the crude oil processing and the fossil fuels consumption