The Study of Institutional Research of Applying Data Mining to National University Enrollment Management

[[abstract]]近年因國際化（internationalization）、市場化（marketization）、少子女化（low birth rate）與區域化（regionalization）的衝擊，影響我國高等教育甚鉅。大學逐漸採取市場化經營管理模式，但國立大學若要採取市場化經營管理，則與傳統依賴政府補助的模式有很大的差異。校務研究係針對大學的經營與管理，廣泛且有系統性蒐集與分析財務、管理經營、研究成果、學生學習成果與畢業生的資料，為大學的經營管理決策提供重要依據。有鑑於此，本研究之研究目的有三：一、瞭解高等教育環境變遷下，我國高等教育的改進之道。二、探討校務研究落實於大學招生管理的模式。三、依據研究成果對大學招生提出具體因應策略。 本研究之文獻探討首先闡述高等教育受到國際化、教育市場化、少子女化與區域化等現象的影響，其次說明校務研究之發展脈絡與意涵，最後說明高等教育招生策略之模式。面臨此國際化、教育市場化、少子女化與區域化等現象，校務研究是高等教育在因應經營困境中常採取的策略，其是為大學經營管理危機帶來轉機的方法。本研究著眼於校務研究中的招生一環，期能以此作為改善大學經營策略方式之依據，並將招生管理分成生源分析、在學評估，以及畢業表現等三個面向，此三個活動是延續且回溯的互動歷程。 本研究以國立暨南國際大學做為分析個案大學，採用資料採礦針對個案大學的校務研究資料進行分析。本研究的研究流程是基於資料採礦，分為問題界定、資料彙整、資訊剖析、視覺處理四個步驟，使用的分析方法主要有群集化與分類兩種，群集化的統計分析方法為集群分析，分類的統計分析方法為決策樹，運用的軟體為SPSS、R與QlikView。 本研究運用生源分析、在學評估與畢業表現三個步驟建立大學招生模式，透過集群分析瞭解個案大學在全國招生市場上的優勢在於中部地區高中職，研究所的主要招生來源則是個案大學自身學士班畢業生；運用決策樹分析在學評估、建構學習預警機制，發現總及格率與就讀學院是學生休退學關鍵；最後針對個案大學與競爭對手學生已投入職場比率進行畢業表現分析，結果發現個案大學已投入職場比率屬高程度，但是學士班、碩士班與博士班畢業生已投入職場增長率皆為負成長。 依據研究結果，本研究提出三項結論：一、目前高等教育面臨國際化、教育市場化、少子女化、區域化的衝擊，應採用創新思維與作法因應大學經營管理的挑戰；二、校務研究有助於改善大學績效，其中有效的招生管理係回應國際化、市場化、少子女化與區域化現象的因應策略；三、大學招生管理應著眼於生源分析、在學評估，以及畢業表現三個面向。最後根據研究結論提出對教育主管機關、學校決策者與未來研究之建議。[[abstract]]Internationalization, marketization, low birth rate and regionalization have made huge impact to Taiwan higher education. The university management is gradually marketed which is different from traditional way depending on government allowance. Institutional research is important for universities managers to make decisions by widely and systematic collecting and analyzing finance, management, research results, students learning results and graduates data. The purposes of this study are as follows: 1. to understand how to improve Taiwan higher education in the changing environment; 2. to explore the institutional research model of university enrollment management; 3. to present the recommendations to university enrollment management according to the research results. At first, this study explores the impact of internationalization, marketization, low birth rate and regionalization; secondly, explaining the development of institutional research and context; finally, explaining higher education enrollment management model. Be confronted with internationalization, marketization, low birth rate and regionalization, institutional research is used to be one of solving way for financial difficulties. This study is focus on enrollment management of institutional research, to be used for improving the university business strategy. This study divides enrollment management to three parts of student source analysis, learning assessment and graduation performance. These three parts is a continued and backtracking interaction process. The analysis case of this study is National Chi Nan University, analyzing its institutional research data by data mining. The data mining divided to four steps: problem definition, data aggregation, information analysis, visualization. The main analysis models are clustering and classification. Statistical analysis method of clustering is cluster analysis, statistical analysis method of classification is decision tree, and using SPSS, R and QlikView to analyze. This study used student source analysis, learning assessment and graduation performance that three steps to build enrollment management model. By clustering to know this case university’s advantage in senior high school and vocational high school. The main first year students of graduate institute are from this case university’s own university graduates. By using decision tree for learning assessment, it can build Early Warning Systems to exhume that the total passing rate and the college they attend is the key whether students are drop out. Finally, executing graduation performance by analyzing the case university and competitor employment ratio, the result is the case university employment ratio is high level, but the trend of bachelor, master and doctor employment ratio is negative growth. According to the result, this study raise three conclusions: 1. internationalization, marketization, low birth rate and regionalization make huge impact to Taiwan higher education, new innovative thinking and practice are in response to the challenges of university enrollment management. 2. institutional research promote operate performance, the most effective enrollment management is in response to internationalization, marketization, low birth rate and regionalization. 3. enrollment management is focus on the three parts: Source analysis, learning assessment and graduation performance. At last, basing on the conclusions, raising suggestions for the education authorities, university decision makers and future research.[[note]]碩