The Impact of Emerging Countries on Sub-Saharan African Economies: Factors of Long-Term Growth?

Sub-Saharan African economies have exhibited positive growth rates since the mid-2000s, and the contribution of emerging countries to this growth is the matter of heated debates. The paper shows the complexity of causalities, which depend on: i) channels (trade, investment); ii) the emerging country (China having by far the strongest impact); and iii) African countries’ market structures. On the one hand, this growth relies on structural imbalances: it is generated by distorted export structures that are based on commodities, and falls if international prices decline, which necessarily occurs due to the inherent volatility of prices - high prices are moreover driven by factors that may not last, i.e. the growth of emerging countries; this growth also increases the specialisation of African economies in commodities. On the other hand, emerging countries have positive impacts via their investments, notably in infrastructure, which foster industrialisation. Likewise, developed countries’ aid, due to policy conditionality and its detrimental effects, induces greater asymmetries than does the aid of emerging countries