Understanding cyclic seismicity and ground deformation patterns at volcanoes: intriguing lessons from Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

Cyclic seismicity and ground deformation patterns are observed on many volcanoes worldwide where seismic swarms and the tilt of the volcanic flanks provide sensitive tools to assess the state of volcanic activity. Ground deformation at active volcanoes is often interpreted as pressure changes in a magmatic reservoir, and tilt is simply translated accordingly into inflation and deflation of such a reservoir. Tilt data recorded by an instrument in the summit area of Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador, however, show an intriguing and unexpected behaviour on several occasions: prior to a Vulcanian explosion when a pressurisation of the system would be expected, the tilt signal declines significantly, hence indicating depressurisation. At the same time, seismicity increases drastically. Envisaging that such a pattern could carry the potential to forecast Vulcanian explosions on Tungurahua, we use numerical modelling and reproduce the observed tilt patterns in both space and time. We demonstrate that the tilt signal can be more easily explained as caused by shear stress due to viscous flow resistance, rather than by pressurization of the magmatic plumbing system. In general, our numerical models prove that if magma shear viscosity and ascent rate are high enough, the resulting shear stress is sufficient to generate a tilt signal as observed on Tungurahua. Furthermore, we address the interdependence of tilt and seismicity through shear stress partitioning and suggest that a joint interpretation of tilt and seismicity can shed new light on the eruption potential of silicic volcanoes