The article is aimed at building a cognitive map using the method of gradually formalizing the decision making tasks – cognitive modeling to forecast the impact of organizational changes on the emergence of staff resistance to these changes and the use of an appropriate set of incentives to overcome the resistance. The theoretical generalization of existing research on cognitive modeling has led to the development of scenarios reflecting the impact of relevant organizational changes on the respective types of staff resistance and the impact of a particular set of incentives to overcome this resistance. The concepts in the system of «organizational changes – incentives – resistance» have been chosen the types of organizational change, the ty...