Modeling the effects of palm-house proximity on the theoretical risk of Chagas disease transmission in a rural locality of the Orinoco basin, Colombia

Abstract Background Chagas disease is a major public health concern in Latin America and it is transmitted by insects of the subfamily Triatominae, including Rhodnius spp. Since palm trees are ubiquitous in Colombia and a habitat for Rhodnius spp., the presence of palms near villages could increase contact rates between vectors and humans. Therefore, knowing whether a relationship exists between the proximity of palms to villages and the abundance and distribution of vectors therein, may be critical for Chagas disease prevention programs. Adapting a mathematical model for R. prolixus population dynamics in a small village, we model the implications of changing distances between palms and dwellings, to the risk of Chagas disease infection. Methods We implemented a mathematical model that reflects R. prolixus population dynamics in a small village located in the department of Casanare (Colombia) to study the role of palm-house proximity. We varied the distance between palms and houses by monitoring the network global efficiency metric. We constructed 1,000 hypothetical villages varying distances and each one was run 100 times. Results According to the model, as palm-house proximity increases, houses were more likely to be visited by triatomine bugs. The number of bugs per unit time increased progressively in a non-linear fashion with high variability. We stress the importance of village configuration on the model output. Conclusions From a theoretical perspective, palm-house proximity may have a positive effect on the incidence of Chagas disease. The model predicts a 1% increase in new human cases per year when houses and palms are brought closer by 75%