An approach to the assessment of change in the numbers of Canada Branta canadensis and Greylag Geese Anser anser in southern Britain

Population change in geese was assessed using an approach that requires a relatively small sampling effort. During the 1999 breeding season a survey was carried out to determine if the numbers of introduced Canada and re-established Greylag Geese in southern Britain had changed since 1988–91 and whether any change had occurred in areas with previously high or low Canada Goose densities. A randomized stratified sample of 246 tetrads from the 24 156 tetrads covered between 1988–91 in this area, as part of the New Atlas of Breeding Birds, were resurveyed. Eight habitat cate- gories were used in the stratification and were based on 1-km-square summary data obtained from the CEH Land Cover Map of Great Britain (water cover and urbanization) and LANDCLASS stratification (upland/lowland). The five habitat categories with the highest densities of Canada Geese and the greatest variance in numbers were sampled. Between 1989 and 1999, the number of Canada Geese on land with over 5% water cover and on lowland with some water cover increased by on average 156%, an average rate of increase of 9.9% per annum. Southern Britain probably now holds a minimum of 82 000 Canada Geese. Between 1989 and 1999, the number of Greylag Geese on land with over 5% water cover and on lowland with some water cover increased by on average 214%, an average rate of increase of 12% per annum. Southern Britain probably now holds a minimum of 30 000 Greylag Geese. Maximum densities of Canada Geese may have been reached in high-density habitats but their numbers are still increasing very rapidly. Greylag Geese are increasing even more rapidly