Conceptual Description of Latvia's Transport System Development Optimization and Forecasting Complex Model

A conceptual description of complex model for Latvia’s transport system development forecasting and optimization is represented. As the main criterion of optimization, Latvia’s inhabitant 100 km out-of-town communication weighted average time and cost expenses have been taken into consideration. Separate blocks of the model are enumerated (Information, Calculation, Forecasting, Economical evaluation, Optimization). For the main blocks (Calculation, Forecasting and Optimization) basic solved tasks and used mathematical models and algorithms are enumerated, literature sources are given. The analytical description of the inhabitants’ allocation on the territory of Latvia (given by A.Kashurin) is used essentially. A nonlinear regression model for a forecasting of passenger flows between various areas of Latvia has been described. The gradient method is used for unknown parameter estimation.Task solution order of priority is described. It is noted that computation procedure is iterative. The iterations are ended when experts accept a suggested variant