Aspects of volatility and risk in the UK housing markets

Despite the lessons of the post-2007 housing crisis, it would be dangerous to suggest that there will be no similar future events. This thesis examines a set of issues related to both past and future housing market volatility and trends. There are three central chapters (in addition to the Introduction and concluding chapters). The first substantive chapter extends the standard life-cycle housing approach to a three-asset model which incorporates interactions with financial markets and uncertainty; it can be shown that endogenous housing cycles can explain volatility. Three parameters drive the system -the income and price elastidties of housing demand and the degree of risk aversion. UK policy has attempted to increase housing supply to stabilise affordability, but the model demonstrates that stabilisation is unlikely through this route. However, it derives an alternative built-in stabiliser operating via an endogenous risk premium, frequently ignored in housing, which affects house price volatility. The second substantive chapter also uses the three asset model, but concentrates on the determinants of the equilibrium debt to income ratio for households. This indicator is particularly important for macro stabilisation purposes, but historically has exhibited a strong upward trend and no signs of an obvious equilibri urn. The chapter examines why this might be the case and derives formal conditions for the equilibrium. Chapter 4 turns to the sub-national level and examines regional and local markets. The key question is whether spatial variations in mortgage indebtedness are positively related to differences in house price volatility. This is primarily an empirical chapter, utilising newly constructed data on mortgage debt