Application of cost-benefit analysis for the selection of process-industry related security measures

In the last few years, several accidental events have highlighted the importance of major manmade hazards,either accidental or deliberate by nature, within chemical and process facilities. Moreover, many plants arelocated in unstable geo-political areas, where the risk of major accidents triggered by external factors, such asterroristic attacks or sabotages, is not negligible. Hence, intentional risks should be investigated by proper riskassessments, included in the risk picture and reduced by applying adequate security measures. Because ofthe increased attention for security issues, optimal selection of security measures, by developing and applyingeconomic analyses, may become more important to reduce plants vulnerability towards intentional malevolentacts, as terroristic attacks and sabotages. Despite economic models, such as cost-benefit analysis forsupporting the decision-making process, have proved to be fundamental in many respects with regards tosafety, for instance no specific applications of cost-benefit analysis are available in the security domain, withinthe chemical and process industry context. In this paper, the role of the fundamental terms of cost-benefitanalysis within the specific framework of process-industry security is discussed, focusing on the estimation ofthe threat probability, the assessment of physical security systems costs and performances and the evaluationof the costs of the losses derived from either perspective or retrospective accidental scenarios.Furthermore, a cost-benefit analysis was applied to an illustrative case study, based on a hypotheticalsabotage to a storage tank in a process facility, leading to a major accident. The aim of the case study is toprove that the application of cost-benefit analysis provides an economic aid or criterion for selecting additionalsecurity measures in a process plant. Starting from a credible sequence of adversary’s actions, theuncertainties related to the threat probability have been accounted and realistic security measures in placehave been considered, determining the baseline physical security system performance. Therefore, threepertinent security upgrades have been proposed; for each of them the performances improvement andrealistic total costs have been calculated; the losses derived from an expected accidental scenario have beenestimated. Then, cost-benefit analysis has been applied proving that it allows defining a rational allocation ofsecurity measures. Therefore, we conclude that cost-benefit analysis may offer a relevant support in securityrisk analysis and its related decision-making process, within the chemical and process industry domain.Safety and Security Scienc