Modeling the impact of improved aircraft operations technologies on the environment and airline behavior

The overall goal of this thesis is to determine if improved operations technologies are economically viable for US airlines, and to determine the level of environmental benefits available from such technologies. Though these operational changes are being implemented primarily with the reduction of delay and improvement of throughput in mind, economic factors will drive the rate of airline adoption. In addition, the increased awareness of environmental impacts makes these effects an important aspect of decision-making. Understanding this relationship may help policymakers make decisions regarding implementation of these advanced technologies at airports, and help airlines determine appropriate levels of support to provide for these new technologies. In order to do so, the author models the behavior of a large, profit-seeking airline in response to the introduction of advanced equipage allowing improved operations procedures. The airline response included changes in deployed fleet, assignment of aircraft to routes, and acquisition of new aircraft. From these responses, changes in total fleet-level CO2 emissions and airline profit were tallied. As awareness of the environmental impact of aircraft emissions has grown, several agencies (ICAO, NASA) have moved to place goals for emissions reduction. NASA, in particular, has set goals for emissions reduction through several areas of aircraft technology. Among these are Operational Improvements, technologies available in the short-term through avionics and airport system upgrades. The studies in this thesis make use of the Fleet-Level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET), a simulation tool developed by Purdue University in support of a NASA-sponsored research effort. This tool models the behavior of a large, profit-seeking airline through an allocation problem. The problem is contained within a systems dynamics type approach that allows feedback between passenger demand, ticket price, and the airline fleet composition so that the demand and airline operations evolve over time. The studies indicate that, despite an increased cost, improved equipage provides benefits to airline profits as long as equipped airports are available. Improved equipage also reduces fuel burn on a per-flight basis, but depending on the percentage of equipped aircraft in the fleet, the overall airline fuel burn may increase. Improved equipage does increase capacity at busy airports – such as Chicago O\u27Hare – allowing a greater number of aircraft to operate at the airport on any given day. A sensitivity study indicates that, in the FLEET model, airline profits are most sensitive to changes in the underlying demand for air travel, followed by the price of jet fuel. Equipage related factors, such as the number of equipped airports in the network or the cost of improved equipage, have a comparatively minor influence on airline profit. Of these secondary factors, the assumed decrease in trip or segment distance enabled by improved equipage systems has the greatest impact on profit. Ability to retrofit aircraft and entry-in-service date of equipped aircraft has the greatest impact on the number of equipped aircraft in the fleet