Persistent growth slowdowns in fast-growing middle-income economies

From the second half of the 20th century, a set of emerging economies have undergone a remarkable developing path. During the first years of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) were only slightly affected by its negative impacts. However, after 2013, a considerable growth slowdown period has evolved in these countries with the exception of the Indian economy. In the current study, we examine whether the growth dynamics of the BRICS economies shows significant correlation with the fluctuation of commodity prices, especially in the case of raw materials. Besides applying a cross correlation model on the quarterly commodity price indices and real GDP growth data, the research also focuses on the export structure of the selected fast-growing countries. As a closing element of our paper, a brief analysis is carried out regarding the correlations of growth patterns within the BRICS economies