Computer use in the Netherlands. The past, present and future electricity consumption

SUMMARY In most developed countries computers are extensively used nowadays. Being one of these developed countries, also the Netherlands has to do with a high level of computer use. For the future it is expected that this computer use will increase even further. A major drawback of this ongoing process of digitalization is the accompanying increase in electricity consumption. This can be illustrated by past developments in the electricity consumption of the Netherlands. As an example, approximately 5.7% of total the electricity consumption in the Netherlands in 2008 was due to the use of computers, while this was about 5.1% in 2006. To provide more insight into future developments in the electricity consumption due to computer use in the Netherlands, the following research question was to be answered in this research. What will, based on past developments and future expectations, be the detailed future electricity consumption due to computer use in the Netherlands? To answer this question, a detailed overview of the electricity consumption due to past computer use was constructed first. This overview was constructed according to a bottom-up approach. Next, forecasts were made on the future electricity consumptions due to computer use in the Netherlands. A probabilistic model, implemented in GoldSim, was used for making these forecasts according to many different scenarios. Again a bottom-up approach was used. According to the obtained results, the electricity consumption due to past computer use in the Netherlands increased tremendously, from 0 TWh in 1980 to about 5.7 TWh in 2010. In the beginning, this electricity consumption was mainly due to the use of consumer devices like desktops and laptops. However, in the late nineties the use of the internet started to increase tremendously. In the subsequent period, the electricity consumption due to the internet usage increased to almost 62% of the total electricity consumption due to computer use in the Netherlands in 2010. The increase in electricity consumption due to internet usage was in this period considerably larger, than that in electricity consumption due to the personal or business use of consumer computing devices. Although the use of computing devices for personal and business purposes did increase considerably in this period, the emergence of more energy-efficient devices like, laptops, LCD monitors, and later on also smartphones and tablets, leveled off the accompanying electricity consumption. For the future, it was forecasted that the electricity consumption due to computer use in the Netherlands, will keep on increasing. In the best-case-scenario it will only increase a little, to approximately 6 TWh in 2030, but for most scenarios the increase is considerably larger. In the worst-case-scenario it will even increase to about 21 TWh in 2030. Furthermore, the forecasts indicate that, just like in the past, the contribution of internet usage to the total electricity consumption due to computer use in the Netherlands will keep on increasing. For example, in the mean scenario the use of internet is in 2030 responsible for over 81% of this total electricity consumption. The electricity consumption due to the personal and business use of consumer computing devices is forecasted to remain relatively stable in the future. The reason for this is the considerable increase in the use of computing devices, compensated by a substantial decrease in the average power consumption of computer use. The increasing use of energy-efficient devices like smartphones, tablets and ultrabooks is an important cause of this latter development. All together, it can be concluded that especially the electricity consumption associated with the increasing use of the internet, is a concerning future development. However, it should be mentioned that the difference between the forecasted internet-related electricity consumption of the worst-case-scenario and that of the best-case-scenario is substantial. Furthermore, the variance in these forecasted internet-related electricity consumptions is highly correlated to that in the forecasted electricity consumption due to the total computer use in the Netherlands. So besides concluding that the electricity consumption due to internet use is a serious concern for the future, also further research on this future electricity consumption due to the use of internet is considered to be very necessary.