Local cooling, global warming

The growing use of refrigeration and air conditioning systems and the shift in refrigerant types due to the Montreal Protocol lead to rapidly increasing HFC refrigerant emissions globally, especially in developing countries. Reducing the emission of these potent greenhouse gases globally seems to be indispensable in a successful long term climate strategy. The thesis uses quantitative vintage models as well as qualitative policy analysis to assess how various policy options to reduce refrigerant emissions and socio-economic developments may affect HFC emissions. It finds that local circumstances may influence policy options to reduce future HFC emissions differently in industrialized as well as developing countries. The current European approach to reduce emissions through a containment strategy at the final user stage is unlikely to be effective in developing countries, due to a limited financial and regulatory capacity and different priorities. However, a strategy aimed at inducing a technology shift at the producer stage, that leads to phasing-out HFC refrigerant use, may be able to reduce emissions globally. The thesis concludes that an effective long term climate policy should therefore aim at technology shift. In accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, it suggests starting in industrialized countries. The thesis further addresses the effect of increasing refrigeration and air conditioning system use on energy demand patterns. It finds that such development may change the temperature dependence of electricity demand. It further finds that current global energy demand models that address future energy demand in the context of climate change insufficiently accommodate such and other socio-economic developments. It suggests several improvements to these models.