Taking the political leap - Regime transition in Myanmar: Plausible Scenario or Utopian Thought?

This thesis examines the possibility for regime transition in Myanmar, a country that has been ruled by a military junta since 1962. In the analysis, the author delves into the history of Burma / Myanmar, going back to developments that precede the period of British colonialism (1885-1948). The historical part of this thesis focuses mostly on the period 1962-1990, illustrating how certain colonial and pre-colonial legacies linger on into modern Myanmar. The author moves on to a brief summary and analysis of regime transition theory, arguing that the use of terminology can be deceptive and should thus be used carefully. Likewise, the author examines what factors make that a regime is susceptible to regime transition but also what factors allow or obstruct such a development. Likewise the direct causes of regime transitions are examined. The analysis of contemporary Myanmar is divided into two chapters, one each for internal and external developments. The chapter on internal developments focuses largely on the functioning of the military leaders in particular, and Myanmar politics in general. The chapter on foreign influences looks individually at the roles of the West, the ASEAN, China and Thailand. Each of these regions or countries shows specific traits in their relations with Myanmar, showing both positive and negative aspects of international efforts towards change in Myanmar. The author concludes that regime transition is possible and will likely happen. However, this could happen in two ways. On the one hand, it could be change caused by protest and revolution brought about by the Burmese themselves. The other possibility is that the current regime adapts and gradually changes to a more acceptable political entity. In both cases, however, this would need a change in foreign policy. Especially Western policy is in need of revision as most current policies have proven to be counterproductive.