Risk and protective factors of different functional trajectories in older persons: are these the same?

We examined whether risk and protective factors of different functional trajectories were the same in 1,765 Dutch older persons. We assessed disability in 1993 and reassessed it in 2001. For 2001 as compared with 1993, we distinguished three trajectory groups: substantially poorer, somewhat poorer, and no change or better functioning. We assessed sociodemographic, health, and psychosocial potential risk or protective factors in 1993. When we analyzed them separately, risk and protective factors had similar (but mirrored) associations with functional trajectories. However, in a multivariate approach, we identified old age, depressive symptoms, and low mastery as risk factors for functional decline, whereas we identified young age, good perceived health, and self-efficacy expectancies as factors that predicted trajectories of healthy functioning. Risk and protective factors of functional trajectories in older persons are not the same