Effect of expectations on civil-war and its recurrence

The goal of this thesis is to shed light on the efect of expectations on the civil war and its recurrence. We use a dataset that covers over 90 countries over the period of 1970-2014. First, we introduce proxy-variables of expectations about the future presence of civil war into an econometric model of occur- rence of civil conlict. Using the logistic regression, we ind that expectations have a signiicant inluence on the onset of civil conlict. Thereafter, we ex- amine the impact of these expectations in post-conlict situations, which is smaller but non-negligible. Subsequently, we compare the features of post- conlict countries, where civil war has repeated within 10 years and where it has not, via the Welch test. Finally, we describe conlict as a game with complete information and as a Bayesian game. In these we identify the role of expectations about opponent's action and the role of changes in payofs. JEL Classiication D74, C21, D84, C72 Keywords civil war, post-conlict, cross-section, noncoop- erative games, expectations Author's e-mail bara.koranova@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail gregor@fsv.cuni.c