Comprehensive Uncertainty Quantification in Nuclear Safeguards

Nuclear safeguards aim to confirm that nuclear materials and activities are used for peaceful purposes. To ensure that States are honoring their safeguards obligations, quantitative conclusions regarding nuclear material inventories and transfers are needed. Statistical analyses used to support these conclusions require uncertainty quantification (UQ), usually by estimating the relative standard deviation (RSD) in random and systematic errors associated with each measurement method. This paper has two main components. First, it reviews why UQ is needed in nuclear safeguards and examines recent efforts to improve both top-down (empirical) UQ and bottom-up (first-principles) UQ for calibration data. Second, simulation is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in measurement error RSDs on estimated nuclear material loss detection probabilities in sequences of measured material balances