A dying creed: the demographic contradictions of liberal capitalism

This project seeks to evaluate the theory that the trend toward secularisation will eventually reverse itself for demographic reasons. Recent research on the 'second demographic transition' suggests that fertility rates are stabilising well below replacement levels in developed societies. However, one of the most important sections of the population with above-replacement fertility are the religious. In the absence of large-scale apostasy, these individuals will gradually increase their share of the population. Is this a mere demographic flight of fancy? Consider a number of examples which suggest otherwise: The early Christian church became dominant in the Roman empire in good measure through its lower mortality rates as compared with pagans. This allowed it to grow at 40 percent per decade for several centuries and thus expand from 40 converts to 6 million between 30 and 300 A.D. Recently, states which supported Bush in 2004 had a 12-point fertility advantage over Kerry states because white evangelicals have a 2:1 fertility advantage over secular Americans. The study uses quantitative techniques to test the link between religiosity, fertility and politics cross-nationally and over time. This is then integrated into bigger questions about the 'End of History' and future of liberal secularism