Effect of eliminating CD4-count thresholds on HIV treatment initiation in South Africa: An empirical modeling study.

The World Health Organization recommends initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count. We assessed the effect of ART eligibility on treatment uptake and simulated the impact of WHO's recommendations in South Africa.We conducted an empirical analysis of cohort data using a regression discontinuity design, and then used this model for policy simulation. We enrolled all patients (n = 19,279) diagnosed with HIV between August 2011 and December 2013 in the Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme in rural South Africa. Patients were ART-eligible with CD4