Climate change and agricultural adaptation: assessing management uncertainty for four crop types in Spain

Climate change inevitably leads to large regional variations in risks and opportunities and is likely to affect most farmers in the Mediterranean in the next decades. The interpretation of climate projections to determine appropriate policy responses is not without difficulties, such as understanding local uncertainty and responses of specific crops to sets of conditions. Here we analyse the potential impacts of climate on agriculture in the Mediterranean — a region that exemplifies other regions of the world that are prone to drought and are likely to experience increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the future. Our analysis relies on understanding the sources of uncertainty derived from climate scenarios, agricultural systems, impact responses and risk levels to support informed decisions for planned agricultural adaptation. We generated multiple projections of impacts based on different models of climate change and crop response in order to capture uncertainties. We used statistical models of yield response and projections of climate change generated from 16 climate scenarios to address the likelihood of projected impacts on traditional Mediterranean farming systems, represented in this study by cereals, grapes, olives and citrus. Results show that uncertainty varies widely by crop and location, and adaptation priorities will therefore depend on the risk focus of adaptation plan