Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic : potential for subsea permafrost instability
- Dmitrenko, Igor A.
- Kirillov, Sergey A.
- Tremblay, L. Bruno
- Kassens, Heidemarie
- Anisimov, Oleg A.
- Lavrov, Sergey A.
- Razumov, Sergey O.
- Grigoriev, Mikhail N.
DOIAbstract
Summer hydrographic data (1920–2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid-1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open-water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deep...
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