Predictive distribution model for the boreal felt lichen Erioderma pedicellatum in Newfoundland, Canada

The worldwide population of the boreal felt lichen Erioderma pedicellatum is currently listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN, with over 95% of the current population residing on the island of Newfoundland, Canada. Surveys of E. pedicellatum habitats and populations have primarily been opportunistic, rather than systematic, in nature. We used a geographic information system and compiled occurrence data and pseudo-absence data to develop the first predictive spatial distribution model for E. pedicellatum in Newfoundland. Of the suite of 19 models using 4 different parameters examined, the model with distance from coastline and topographic aspect was the best candidate. The final model had low sensitivity (i.e. a low ability to predict false presence), but high specificity (a strong ability to predict true absence). The final predictive model can contribute to future species status assessments and provincial conservation management decisions that require information on probable species distribution