Climate outlook and review 2 June 2011

The major La Niña event, that has produced major impacts over much (but not all) of Australia since winter, 2010 has now dissipated. Indeed, some indicators in the Pacific Ocean now suggest a changeover to completely the opposite rainfall pattern to that experienced this time last year. As a result, rainfall probability values suggest a high risk of below median rainfall for much of inland Australia –with the notable exception of the Central Highlands of Queensland, the coast of NSW and some near coastal areas of Queensland (see Figure 1 for details). We suggest close monitoring of this situation as autumn is often a period of volatility in Pacific Ocean systems