RESEARCH ON SOCIAL WORK PRACTICE Krysik, LeCroy / RISK PREDICTION OF JUVENILE OFFENDERS The Empirical Validation of an Instrument to Predict Risk of Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders

An increase in the number of juveniles entering the juvenile justice system in the past 10 years has heightened the demand for rehabilitation services. Because the demand for rehabilitative services is greater than resources allow, efforts are underway to predict who is a high risk for recidivism so that services may be focused on these juveniles, while reducing efforts to those who are low-risk. In addition, statistical risk prediction is intended to infuse the decision-making pro-cess with greater equity and objectivity because the same factors are considered for every juve-nile. This article describes the use of statistical risk prediction for first-time juvenile offenders. Suggestions for implementation are provided based on lessons learned from this research. The large number of juveniles entering the justice system has heightened interest in statistical methods of risk prediction. The process involves esti-mating an individual’s likelihood of recidivism based on his or her relation-ship to specific characteristics of delinquency. The goal is to identify groups of juvenile offenders with vastly different rates of recidivism and focus reha-bilitative services on those with the greatest risk. There is also some evidence to suggest that the assignment of low-risk juveniles to intensive services may encourage criminal behavior and therefore should be avoided (Andrews, Kiessling, Robinson, & Mickus, 1986). It is well-known that a relatively small number of juveniles contribute dis-proportionately to the crime rate. Of all those juveniles active in the Arizon