PUB DATE 1997-05-00

This study used exploratory modeling, a methodology that combines traditional quantitative forecasting techniques with the insights from scenario-planning, to analyze the conditions under which California can preserve access to its system of public higher education. The study identified two trends currently dominating the issue of future access--future state funding and feasible improvements in productivity. Three major conclusions were drawn: (1) if the fraction of state funds allocated to higher education remains at current levels or increases and if productivity increases at faster than historic rates, California will avoid serious access deficits; (2) if the fraction of state funds allocated remains at the current level, California can maintain access only by achieving productivity increases that are very large relative to historical rates of improvement; and (3) the above conclusions are largely insensitive to any plausible decisions about changes in student fees or trends in future demand for highe