PUB TYPE Reports Research/Technical (143)

Results of research on predictors of organizational responses to declining enrollments at 56 small to medium-sized colleges and universities are discussed. Decline wns experienced from 1978-1979 to 1981-1982. Severity of decline was selected cs an objective predictor of organizational response, while internal agreement on mission and attributions of cause, controllability, an3 stability of decline were selected as subjective predictors of response. Two types of responses were examined: those that emphasize efficiency (operating responses) and those that represent a change in product/market mix (strategic responses). Path analysis indicated that severity of decliue was not directly related to the types of responses that the organizations take following a period of decline. Instead, agreement on mission had a direct negative effect on both operating and strategic types of responses, end this effect increasee as the result of the mediating perceptual variables of control and stability. Perceived cause of decline and other perceptual variables were useful in predicting types of response. Comparing subject and objective predictors of responses to decline revealed that agreement on mission is a better predictor of response than is severity of decline. Implications for future research are offered. Five pages of references are included. (SW) * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * * from the original document.