A Comprehensive Review of the Tourism Forecasting Literature

Major reports of tourism forecasting studies are classified by forecasting method employed, reviewed, compared, and critiqued. Apartial meta-analysis is used to attempt to gauge relative accuracy of the various approaches used in differing situations. Summary statements on the relative usefulness of the different methods in specific forecasting situa-tions are provided. Some conclusions are drawn to aid future conduct and reporting of tourism forecasting reports. Tourism is a major source of revenue and employment in many countries and regions. The tourism industry is highly competitive and is marked by intense rivalry for the tourist’s discretionary income. The attractiveness of tourism as a gen-erator of employment, income, tax collections, and foreign-exchange earnings has led many developing countries to enter the competition (Jud and Kraus 1976). The industry also changes rapidly in response to inflation, mobility, gas prices, public funding, and many other factors (Van Doren 1981).