ORI GIN AL PA PER Assessing the Impact of First-Time Imprisonment on Offenders ’ Subsequent Criminal Career Development: A Matched Samples Comparison

Abstract Using data from the Netherlands-based Criminal Career and Life-course Study the effect of first-time imprisonment between age 18–38 on the conviction rates in the 3 years immediately following the year of the imprisonment was examined. Unadjusted comparisons of those imprisoned and those not imprisoned will be biased because imprisonment is not meted out randomly. Selection processes will tend to make the imprisoned group disproportionately crime prone compared to the not imprisoned group. In this study group-based trajectory modeling was combined with risk set matching to balance a variety of measurable indicators of criminal propensity. Findings indicate that first-time imprisonment is associated with an increase in criminal activity in the 3 years following release. The effect of imprisonment is similar across offence types