Critical Response Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemics

In this work, we analyze the spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in Uruguay using three different tools: a deterministic model, a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model and an explicit stochastic simulation model. The deterministic model, a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, uses the cow as the basic epidemiological unit. We compute the basic repro-ductive number, Ro, for a system that differentiates between beef and dairy populations of cows. Ro is used to study FMD persistence and control. In the stochastic model, the basic epidemiological unit is the farm. The impact of a policy that quarantines farms is explored. The conditions for quarantine rate that eradicate the disease are computed. The stochastic simulation model takes into account the coordinates of farms, the traffic between farms, and the type of farm (dairy or beef). Simulations of the FMD epidemic are based on data from Uruguay, where we try to predict the regions to quarantine for a viable national control measure in response to an index case