COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR INVESTMENT DECISIONS, CHAPTER 6: DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN INVESTMENT APPRAISAL

In the financial cash flow analysis, a set of values for the project variables are selected to carry out the analysis for the base case that are projected over the life of the investment project. The values of these variables used in the analysis and the resulting outcomes from a predictive model are single values. In reality, uncertainty, which refers to variability in the value, is always present surrounding each of the future values of a project’s key variables throughout the project life. In some cases especially environmental and health projects, because of lack of scientific knowledge and presence of technological innovation, it would be even more difficult to make projections. The uncertainty is further compounded as the effects of the project would be spread over a long period of time in the future. This chapter shows how to move from the deterministic world developed in the base case to a dynamic and probabilistic world in which uncertainty and risk in outcomes prevail in order that the analysis can present more objective and realistic results for decision makers. It also discusses how uncertainty and risk can be addressed and mitigated while managing the project