Design of Probabilistic Model for Optimum Manpower Planning in R&D Department

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to design of a probabilistic model for optimum manpower planning in R&D department by Montecarlo simulation. Methods: We investigate the process and the requirement of manpower planning and scheduling in R&D department. The empirical distributions of necessary time and manpower for R&D projects are developed. From the empirical distributions, we can estimate a probability distribution of optimum manpower in R&D department. A simulation method of estimating the probability distribution of optimum manpower is considered. It is a useful tool for obtaining the sum, the variance and other statistics of the distributions. Results: The real industry cases are given and the properties of the model are investigated by Montecarlo Simulation. we apply the model to the research laboratory of the global company, and investigate and compen-sate the weak points of the model. Conclusion: The proposed model provides various and correct information such as average, variance, percen-tile, minimum, maximum and so on. A decision maker of a company can easily develop the future plan and the task of researchers may be allocated properly. we expect that the productivity can be improved by this study. The results of this study can be also applied to other areas including shipbuilding, construction, and consulting areas