Empirical Results.. PUB DATE (Apr 75].. % DOTE 4p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the

Model identification stime-series data is essential to valid ' statistical tests of interventIOneffects. Model identification is, at best, inexact iu the-todiat and, behavioral sciences'where onei.k often confnented with small: numbers of obstervations. These problems'gre discussed, iffid the resales of independent identifications of 130 social and behavioral time-series 111! by two judges'are presented. The majority (75 percent) of the series were represented by one of four *basic models: "white noise" independen.b.observations); first-order autoregressive; first-order moving averaged model in the first difference;-and "white noise " in the first difference. (AutAo4 4 ***************** * **********************************************4** Documents acguired by ERIC include 'many informal unpublished * materials tot available from other,sources. ERIC, makes every effort * * to obtain the best copy available. nevertheless, items of marginal * * reproducibility are often encountered. and this affects the quality * *-of the microfiche and hardcopy reproductions ERIC makes 4vailable * * via the ERIC (Document Reproduction Service (EDRS). EDRS is not * * responsible for the quality of the original document. Reproductions * ' * supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original.